Rob Kelley here, talking this last weekend with my crime writing colleagues about the increasingly chaotic world of publishing. Last weekend was our beloved New England Crime Bake. The sessions featured new authors, experienced authors, and legends, talking about craft, characterization, and cheering on authors and soon-to-be-authors alike. I wrote this summer about the joys of writing conferences and the spirit of camaraderie and joy they give me as a writer, and that was certainly true this weekend.

We all had a great time sharing our love for books and the genre, but all of the writers in the room share something else as well: a recognition of the fundamental–and accelerating–changes in the publishing world. What has been true for parts of the publishing world is now true for all of it: the old model of finding an agent, them finding you a publisher, and settling in for a mostly stable career with your partners has absolutely vanished.

Over drinks on Saturday night a large number of us talked about our own experiences with self-publishing, hybrid publishing (partnering with a publisher but bearing more of the financial cost for a higher return on sales), small press publishing, and larger press publishing, recognizing that all of it is in flux.

A colleague has just taken back ownership of copyright of her first three books in a series, done new covers, fired up her own press and published them and a fourth with solid success. Another just moved from one small press to another, worried about the first press’s financial status as they work hard to produce really good books but suffer from a lack of business savvy that might jeopardize all of their authors. In contrast, another friend just learned that their path to publication is now in limbo with the resignation of the editor they had been working with, but felt relieved that at least they still own their copyright and can try again.

A downright famous author I know made a decision to move to a press with a more integrated media strategy that should result in better TV and movie opportunities. Another writer who had strong interest from agents for a debut, pulled their book after a hybrid publisher reached out and tempted them into that world. Then, of course, there are the as-yet-unpublished authors who are listening to this chaos and wondering if there will ever be a place for their fine work.

There are more books published every year, which should be good news for writers, as the market is expanding. On the other hand there were some very concerning and confusing stats coming out of the suit against Penguin Random House by the Department of Justice a couple of years back that showed that 90% of books sell fewer than 2,000 copies (there are a ton of other stats from that suit, but it gets confusing, as individual ISBNs for print, audio, etc. are sometimes used in the statistics).

So, should that bum us out? Well, if you are self-published and sell 2000 copies of your debut novel, I think you’d be pretty darn happy. Because here’s the challenge we all–novice to NYT best seller–now face. We need to do the math, understand the business part of being an author, and decide for each and every book what our best move is.

Got an agent who gets you a pretty good advance at one of the Big 5 (Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, HarperCollins, and Pan Macmillan) who own over 80% of the trade book market in the US? Sounds like the dream we’d all have for our debut novel. But if you launch amid a crowded list, don’t get much publicity help, and don’t earn out your advance, your next book is going to be a slog to sell.

On the other hand, you go with a hybrid press, putting some of your money for production up front, getting help from that press with publicity, maybe keeping all of your own audio rights and using Amazon’s ACX to split your audio proceeds with the voice artist, then getting a much higher percentage of audio, e-book, and print book sales than you would at the Big 5, you might really crush it. Of course, that’s more complicated.

Or you self-publish, through Amazon or Ingram Spark, you’ll have to do it all yourself or pay someone to do it, but then you get all of the proceeds.

Which one is lower risk, higher return? Which one is right for you? Maybe any one of them. Maybe multiple versions, some of your books self-published, some hybrid, some traditional. With options come decisions, big ones, like: if I am hustling on social media and touring libraries, when do I have time to write? Or, do I spend time learning to build a website or pay someone to do it?

Here’s what is a right answer now: paying attention to the changing market so that you can make smart decisions about getting your book into the hands of the readers you desire, whether that’s 500 dedicated souls who anxiously await your next title or 500,000 general interest readers who might stumble across your book. No wrong answer, just a lot of potentially right ones.